House Prices: Stress Test, Price-to-Rent, and More
This following graph compares the Case-Shiller Composite 10 SA index with the Stress Test scenarios from the Treasury (stress test data is estimated from quarterly forecasts). Click on graph for larger image in new window. The Stress Test scenarios use the Composite 10 index and start in December. Here are the numbers: Case-Shiller Composite 10 Index (SA), October: 157.56 Stress Test Baseline Scenario, October: 142.3 Stress Test More Adverse Scenario, October: 130.6 House prices are 10.7% higher than the baseline scenario, and 20.6% higher than the more adverse scenario. There were three key economic stress test parameters: house prices, GDP and unemployment. Both house prices and GDP are performing better than the baseline scenario, and unemployment is performing worse than both stress test…(read more)
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